Słońce z SDO/ Wizual 03.11.2021

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tafig
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Słońce z SDO/ Wizual 03.11.2021

Post autor: tafig »

Zanim jednak opiszemy dzisiejszy stan aktywności słonecznej powróćmy do 28 października tegoż roku. Co takiego się wydarzyło? Otóż w tym dniu z obszaru 2887 nastąpił o godz.15.48 rozbłysk klasy X1. Jednak dzień wcześniej doszło do wyrzutu koronalnego CME i media zapowiadały zorzę nawet widoczną w Polsce z soboty na niedzielę.
Poniżej wyrzut koronalny CME z 2 listopada.

Co na ten temat przysłano w emailu z SIDC?
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was high during the last 24 hours, with one
X1 flare detected from NOAA Active Region (AR) 2887 on 28 Oct 15:48 UT. An
M1 flare was produced by NOAA AR 2891 today with a peak at 02:53 UT. Those
two ARs were responsible for numerous C-class flares during the last 24
hours. Several other ARs appear on disk, but did not produce any
noticeable activity. NOAA AR 2887 is likely to produce M-class flare
activity and NOAA AR 2891 might also produce flares at the M-class level in
the next 24 hours. Another X-class flare from NOAA AR 2887 might take place
during the next 24 hours.

A halo Coronal Cass Ejection (CME) was detected by CACTUS from
SOHO/LASCO-C2 images. It was caused by an eruption that took place on 27
Oct 15:50 UT close to the solar central meridian and in the solar south
hemisphere. Based on STEREO/COR2 measurements, Its speed is estimated to be
around 800 km/s. As such it is almost certainly geo-effective and its
arrival time is estimated to be in the early UT hours of the 31 Oct.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux increased above nominal levels during
the past 24 hours most likely because of the CME mentioned above. It went
above the threshold of 10 particles cm-2 s-1 sr-1 on 28 Oct 17:35 UT and
peaked at 30 particles cm-2 s-1 sr-1 today around 02:50 UT. The event is
still on-going and it is expected to end within 24 hours. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is
expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h
electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime for the
past 24 hours. The SW speed (as measured by DSCOVR) varied between 280 and
310 km/s during the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field (Btot) was at
low levels, between 1 and 6 nT, while its Bz component varied between -2
and 4 nT in the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle
was almost exclusively in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun)
during the last 24 hours. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain
in the slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours, unless the ICME
predicted to arrive on 31 Oct, becomes geo-effective much earlier.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet (NOAA Kp and K
Dourbes 0-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet
for the next 24 hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 077, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.
Przejdźmy jednak do sytuacji dzisiejszej.
Na Słońcu pozostały dwa aktywne regiony 2891 i 2893.
Region 2893 to grupa jednobiegunowa statyczna z jedną plamą otoczoną symetrycznym półcieniem, bez szans na większy rozbłysk. Bardziej interesująca jest dla nas grupa 2891, w której na zdjęciu SDO można zaobserwować kilka plam. Trzy plamy otoczone są wzajemnym asymetrycznym półcieniem i towarzyszącą jedną plamę z szczątkowym półcieniem. Wewnątrz grupy w powiększeniu widać jeszcze kilka mniejszych plam. Podczas mojej dość późnej obserwacji, bo dopiero o 1430 UT widziałem tylko ten większy półcień i znacznie niej plam aniżeli widzimy na zdjęciu SDO. SIDC w komentarzu podaje iż są spodziewane rozbłyski klasy C właśnie z regionu 2891. Region 2891 wczoraj wyprodukował kolejny wyrzut koronalny i dotarcie CME do Ziemi przewiduje się na 4 listopada.
1.jpg
COMMENT: The strongest flare of the period was just a C1 flare from NOAA
active region 2887 which is now approaching the West limb.
NOAA region 2891 (source of the M flare yesterday) remained mostly calm
(with only an occasional B flare) as did the simple unipolar region 2893.
NOAA region 2891 remains the most significant region in terms of flaring
potential with opposite polarityfield concentrations in the trailing area.
Overall C flares are expected with a slight possibility for an M flare.

The available STEREO COR2 cornagraph images indicate that the speed in the
direction of the Earth, of the CME associated to the M1.7 flare, is
somewhat faster than originally estimated. It is now estimated that the
arrival may occur from noon tomorrow November 4 onwards.

Some new CMEs are visible in SoHO LASCO C2 imagery. From 12:36UT onwards a
CME towards the (South-)West occurs at the same time as some fronts towards
the East and the North. These are judged to be independent and the CMEs are
not expected to be Earth directed. Around and after 21:24UT similar but
stronger cotemporal occurrences of CME's towards the West and East are
recorded but they are again judged to be independent and not expected to be
Earth directed.

The more than 10MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced but below the
event threshold. A further gentle decay is expected but there remains some
possibility of a proton event.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The
24h electron fluence is at normal levels and expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next days.

Solar wind showed a continued but declining high speed stream regime. Solar
wind speed gently decreased from over 600 km/s to now within the 510-560
km/s range. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field went under
5nT with an insignificant Bz component. The magnetic field orientation
indicated connection with a positive polarity sector.
Solar wind is expected to remain enhanced over the next 24-48 hours with
perturbations from a series of CMEs expected from early tomorrow November
4, and into November 5.

Some active geomagnetic conditions were recorded early in the period (K=4),
but geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and
local K Dourbes 1-3).
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach minor or moderate storm levels
associated to the expected CME arrivals on November 4 and into November 5.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 038, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.
Załączniki
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