SDO 18.01.2022

[tafig]

Na tarczy pozostaje pięć grup, w tym trzy dwubiegunowe o klasie D a konkretnie grupa 2929 Dkc, grupa 2930 Dac, 2933 Dso. Oprócz tych dwubiegunowych na tarczy znajdują się grupy 2927 Hsx i 2932 Axx. Grupa 2927 posiada symetryczny półcień okalający jedną plamę, natomiast grupa 2932 jest plama bez półcienia. Na wschdzie można zauważyć liczne pola pochodni. Można wnioskować, że za dwa lub trzy dni pojawią się plamy. Raczej większych rozbłysków się nie prognozuje.
SIDC URSIGRAM na 17.01.2022
COMMENT: There are 7 visible active regions on the solar disk. NOAA AR 2929
has evolved into beta-gamma configuration. Nevertheless, the flaring
activity was concentrated on NOAA AR 2930, the strongest was a C2.8 flare
peaking at 14:15 UT on 17 January. More C-class flares can be expected in
the next 24 hours, M-class flares are possible.

The flare described above was related to a narrow northward-directed CME,
which is not expected to affect the Earth. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux increased slightly above the 1000 pfu alert threshold
and is expected to remain close to the threshold during the next 24 hours.
The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to increase
in the next 24 hours.

The Earth is still under the influence of a High Speed Stream (HSS) with
solar wind speeds close 550 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 4
nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately in the
negative sector (directed towards the Sun) over the last 24 hours. Around
21:00 UT on 17 January the magnetic field increased up to 8 nT with several
hours of negative Bz (peaking at -7 nT), these could be mild signatures of
the passage of the CME from 14 January (this occurred during a period
containing data gaps and with data source changes between ACE and DISCOVR).
The solar wind speed is expected to decrease in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels in Belgium (K_Bel = 4) in the
past 24 hours, and minor storm conditions were reached at planetary levels
(Kp = 5). Mostly unsettled conditions expected for the next 24 hours, if
the CMEs from 15-16 January arrive (expected 19-20 January) then up to
minor storm conditions can be expected.